Temporarily suspension of bookings to/ from Russia and Belarus

With the crisis in the Red Sea having turned into a prolonged new normal, yet another stark reminder was provided on 13 April that ever-present geopolitical turmoil has a profound impact on global supply chains.

As we enter the third month of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels, the outlook for a resolution to the ensuing conflict looks further away than ever

It would be a fair statement that the start of 2024 has been anything but quiet, and our stability temperature monitor is edging ever closer to code red.

At the inception of this advisory, the headline read “Red Sea crisis enters hibernation mode”; however, this headline is clearly no longer reflecting the latest development.

As we enter day 24 of the Red Sea crisis, the situation is as such unchanged, with the industry having grown accustomed to utilising routing via the Cape of Good Hope in the wake of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

Although three major ocean freight alliances are in place for sharing vessel capacity, recent events have made it painfully apparent that this does not translate into consistency in risk assessments, routing decisions, and schedule reliability. Most apparent has been the limbo dance performed by Maersk, which, in recent days, has completed a U-turn on the decision to once again transit through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. 

Following the Christmas holidays, the situation in the Red Sea remains fluid and uncertain. It is also clear that carriers are currently divided in their risk assessment, providing an overall blurry picture of the situation.

Overall, the situation is unchanged in the sense that container carriers continue to re-route vessels utilising the extended route around the Cape of Good Hope. While a military coalition has been formed, it currently remains unclear as to when this will have an effect, allowing vessels to pass through the Red Sea safely.

Following our ocean market update published on 18 December informing of the consequences of missile attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea, we continue to monitor the situation closely and wish to update you on the latest developments.

With apparent pressure on capacity ex Asia in recent weeks and this leading to significant rate level increases we have again moved towards a market development similar to pre-pandemic. Somewhat unexpectedly the peak season for volumes ex Asia has led to significant pressure on available capacity having been boosted by events such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Some analysts now predict that this could be sustained all the way up to Lunar New Year, 10 February 2024.