We kick off 2024 with a fresh take on the current market outlook considering recent market developments.

Overall, the situation is unchanged in the sense that container carriers continue to re-route vessels utilising the extended route around the Cape of Good Hope. While a military coalition has been formed, it currently remains unclear as to when this will have an effect, allowing vessels to pass through the Red Sea safely.

Following the Christmas holidays, the situation in the Red Sea remains fluid and uncertain. It is also clear that carriers are currently divided in their risk assessment, providing an overall blurry picture of the situation.

Although three major ocean freight alliances are in place for sharing vessel capacity, recent events have made it painfully apparent that this does not translate into consistency in risk assessments, routing decisions, and schedule reliability. Most apparent has been the limbo dance performed by Maersk, which, in recent days, has completed a U-turn on the decision to once again transit through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. 

As we enter day 24 of the Red Sea crisis, the situation is as such unchanged, with the industry having grown accustomed to utilising routing via the Cape of Good Hope in the wake of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.