These logistics boots are made for 2026 walking…

A key headline as we look ahead will surely be the potential return to Red Sea transit by the global container carriers. The topic has reemerged in recent weeks following a statement from the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) indicating that Maersk planned to resume normal transits in December, although this triggered a quick response from the carrier stating that no timeline had been set yet.

If carriers resume transit through the Red Sea, this in turn opens Pandora's box in terms of the initial consequences and raises questions such as: What will be the impact on net supply and demand, and consequently, on rate levels? Secondly, to what extent will the re-shuffling of schedules cause congestion at the major European container ports, which are already plagued by infrastructural challenges?

While the most famous headline of 2025 is tariffs, it will feature less in 2026. A major uncertainty remains the state of the major global economies. Demand and, thereby, GDP growth remain subdued despite a period of stabilisation in recent months.

Ever-increasing geopolitical instability continues to impact the confidence of global consumers, which in turn brings up another headline for 2026: a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia to end the now almost 4-year war. While both Ukraine and Russia maintain a firm stance on key demands, especially those related to territorial discussions, the pressure to force through a peace agreement, particularly from the US, is higher than ever before, which can push the parties to the final negotiation table. 

Should an agreement be reached, it will likely have a profoundly positive effect on the global economy and could serve as an instant boost to both Europe and the US. The rebuilding of Ukraine is estimated to cost more than USD 1 trillion, making it the largest post-war rebuilding since World War II. 

It is expected that trade with Russia will resume, especially with the US, although there are doubts as to how Europe will react in a post-war scenario, given significant security concerns when assessing the future relationship between Russia and the EU. 

Read on as we deep-dive into these and other relevant topics within the global transportation and logistics sector.

Please note that all information provided is given to the best of our knowledge and is subject to change.

Global GDP growth climbs modestly 

According to the IMF’s October 2025 update, global economic growth is now projected to be 3.2% in 2025, up from the previous forecast of 3.0% issued in July 2025. This positive revision reflects a combination of stronger-than-expected resilience in some sectors and more stable trade dynamics, despite ongoing geopolitical risks and economic challenges. 

The IMF's update also highlights that economic fragmentation, driven by protectionist foreign and trade policies, remains a key factor shaping global growth. 

For 2026, global growth is expected to slow slightly to 3.1%, signalling a flat development vs. 2025. Emerging markets are expected to maintain relatively stronger growth, driven by robust domestic demand and infrastructural investments, while developed economies are expected to face more subdued recoveries due to structural issues such as ageing populations and weakening productivity levels.

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Peeling the economic onion layers a bit further, the so-called advanced economies, namely the US and EU countries, continue to struggle, whereas Asia, including China and the Middle East, maintains healthy growth rates exceeding the 4% mark. India leads the pack with an expected growth of 6.2% in 2026, albeit this is a slight decrease from 6.6% in 2025.

Most noteworthy observation is the below 1% growth projection for the European economic locomotives Germany, France and Italy, while the UK fairs slightly better at 1.3%. However, it all in all speaks to a struggling Europe where entrepreneurship is hampered by excess bureaucracy, and a technology deficit in the battle with Asian countries led by China.

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While the topic of tariffs has taken a backseat in recent months following the trade “ceasefire” between China and the US, it is important to note that highly inflated US tariffs are still in place. Tariffs are still very far from falling back to their 2024 levels, as can be seen below. There is, as we speak, no outlook that tariffs will be lowered. In other words, increased tariffs have entered a new normal mode with only end consumers left to pay the bill. This, in turn, will dampen general consumer confidence as there is simply less money to spend, combined with the ever-present fear of a new tariff war.

Consequently, economic and trade policy volatility remains elevated in the absence of clear, transparent, and durable agreements among trading partners. Much of the attention is now shifting to the assessment of actual impact on consumer prices, economic investments and general consumption.

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Russia-Ukraine peace talks momentum leaves supply chain risks unchanged

Diplomacy has returned to the centre stage of the Russia–Ukraine war, as a new round of high-level negotiations unfolds between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington. The negotiations mark the most serious engagement between the US and Ukraine since the start of 2025. 

Meanwhile, the war on the ground continues. Russian forces are pressing forward on the front lines. Ukrainian cities remain under regular missile and drone attacks, with critical infrastructure, particularly power stations and fuel depots, being targeted as temperatures drop. In response, Ukraine has escalated its own operations, striking Russian oil export terminals and two Russian “shadow fleet” oil tankers in the Black Sea [1].

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The diplomatic roller-coaster ride continues

Washington’s original peace proposal, drafted without input from Ukraine’s European allies, has been criticised as being too weighted toward Russian demands. Ukraine and its European allies, “the coalition of the willing”, have been pushing Washington to revise the initial peace plan. After the discussions in Florida, Ukraine has tentatively supported the latest peace proposal as it “looks better”, according to President Zelenskyi [2]. 

NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte upped the stakes further by stating: “We are Russia´s next target”, urging alliance members to increase their defence efforts to prevent a war “on the scale our grandparents and great-grand parents endured” firmly cementing the view that European NATO members have no trust in post-war peace guarantees offered by Russia. 

He continued: We are Russia's next target. I fear that too many are quietly complacent. Too many don't feel the urgency. And too many believe that time is on our side. It is not. The time for action is now. Conflict is at our door. Russia has brought war back to Europe and we must be prepared”. Mark Rutte finished off the dramatic statements by echoing his view that Russia would be ready to launch a war in Europe within the next 5 years. [3]

Recent talks in Berlin between the US, Ukraine, and European leaders have produced significant progress on proposed security guarantees for Ukraine, including a European-led and US ceasefire monitoring force. However, major obstacles remain unsolved, and Russia’s acceptance of any deal is still very uncertain [4].

While the diplomatic narrative has clearly shifted, the operating environment for supply chain stakeholders has not. There is no deal on the table, no ceasefire in place, and no guarantees that a negotiated settlement will emerge.

Navigating an ocean freight market tilted toward oversupply

With 2026 fast approaching, let’s take a closer look at what to expect as we head into a new year. Since our latest update, the containership order book has reached a new record high, now accounting for 34% of the active fleet. Add to this a potential return to Red Sea transit during 2026, and injecting additional capacity into the market will leave the industry facing an almost unavoidable imbalance between supply and demand. 

China's carrier giant, Cosco Shipping, dominated the news last week with its record-breaking new building order of 87 vessels across eight different ship types, albeit the order includes oil tankers and bulk vessels as well. The USD 7 billion order from Cosco Shipping comes, according to Alphaliner, on top of an already bulging container vessel order book of 1.1 million TEU comprising 82 vessels. [5]

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Cosco Shipping Holdings is currently the world’s fourth-largest container line with an in-service fleet totalling 3.45 million TEUs and a further 722,000 TEUs on order, according to Sea-web. Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers has more than 150 ships, including MPVs and 20 heavy-lift semi-submersible ships.

ZIM Lines rumoured up for sale

News has also emerged that Hapag-Lloyd and MSC have independently submitted acquisition offers for ZIM, though negotiations have yet to start. Neither company has yet confirmed the offers publicly. It is also clear that any transaction will not be straightforward. In a surprise move following the Hapag-Lloyd offer, current ZIM CEO Eli Glickman and Rami Ungar, Kia’s importer to Israel, submitted a non-binding offer at a USD 2.4 billion valuation. This offer was though immediately rejected by the ZIM board and simultaneously announced that it had formed a team to examine strategic alternatives for the company’s future. The carrier is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and is the 10th largest carrier, with a capacity of 700,000 TEU.

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Financial firm Jefferies outlined five potential scenarios that could play out in the near future, and according to Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta, the most likely scenario is that ZIM will end up in the hands of Glickman and Ungar.

“Given the risk of privately assuming ZIM’s operating costs in a potentially weaker container market and the impact these costs will have on the financing of the acquisition of the company, we consider this to be a high-risk move, but one that the CEO seems willing to take,” he writes in an analysis. However, Jefferies expect that the two may be forced to raise their bid from the currently reported USD 20 per share to at least USD 25 per share. [6]

Zooming in on the Hapag-Lloyd offer, there are some obvious roadblocks standing in the way of a deal. ZIM employees’ association and an Israeli union for naval officers have expressed great concern about the ownership structure of Hapag-Lloyd, which is partly based in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. 

Haider Anjum, equity analyst at Jyske Bank in Denmark, explained last week to ShippingWatch that he saw a high probability that the Israeli government would block the sale of ZIM to its German competitor Hapag-Lloyd.  

“It does not look like Hapag-Lloyd will get much further than the initial purchase offer,” Anjum assessed. [7]

ZIM will hold its annual general meeting on December 26, and the meeting will be followed with great interest, considering that very few acquisition opportunities exist in the current container carrier market.

Size matters, as they say, in Container Shipping

Should Hapag-Lloyd end up as winners, it would be much welcomed news for Hapag-Lloyd. Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime stated the following in an interview with ShippingWatch; “If they have the opportunity to buy a shipping company like ZIM or of ZIM’s size, it would suit them well”. He pointed out that Hapag-Lloyd already attempted to acquire a 40% stake in South Korean HMM in 2023; however, the sale of HMM shares was suspended for national interest reasons in September 2023.

Lars Jensen elaborated further: “Furthermore, it is a stated goal for Hapag-Lloyd to maintain its position in the global top five container shipping companies. This is only possible if the German shipping company manages to grow, as two smaller rivals, Japan’s ONE and South Korea’s Evergreen, are breathing down Hapag-Lloyd’s neck in terms of the position as the world’s fifth-largest container shipping company”. [8]

A fresh December overview from Alcott global illustrated the current market share battle, and as can be seen, Hapag Lloyd is risking getting overtaken by ONE and Evergreen if growth is not attained organically or through acquisition(s).

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Ocean freight rates spike ahead of Lunar New Year

After a plateau period in recent weeks, fresh SCFI numbers for week 50, published Friday, 12 December, showed a 10% increase on the blockbuster trade from China into North Europe, equivalent to a nominal increase of USD 276/40’ container since week 49. For the China-Mediterranean trade, the increase was even sharper, coming in at 19%, and in nominal terms, at USD 874/40’ container. 

A similar pattern emerged on the Transpacific trade, with US West Coast rates increasing by USD 230/40’ container and East Coast rates up by USD 337/40’ container.

In essence, two factors are engaged in a tug of war: peak volumes ahead of the Lunar New Year, and, conversely, a general supply and demand situation where supply is outweighing demand.

Looking a bit further ahead, after the Lunar New Year period, which commences on 17 February 2026 our assessment remains that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. There is a sufficient supply in the market to cater to subdued demand, and accordingly, we assess that rate levels will moderate as we enter February and beyond.

Schedule reliability: Are shippers willing to pay for punctuality?

The latest Global Liner Performance report released by Sea-Intelligence in late November shows a 3.5% decline in global schedule reliability after three consecutive months of stability in carriers’ schedule reliability performance. Although reliability levels remain 11.1% higher than the same period last year, the deterioration in blockbuster trades, such as Asia–North Europe (-9.7%) and the Transpacific (-2.1% / -2.4%), is certainly noteworthy.

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A closer look at the data reveals considerable variation in performance levels among different carriers and alliances in terms of vessel schedule reliability. On the Asia-Europe trade, the Gemini alliance and MSC, on average, report a schedule reliability 10-20% better than the industry average. On the Transpacific trade, Gemini performs 20% better than the average. MSC deliver a 10% above-average performance on the US East Coast and performs roughly in line with the average on the US West Coast.

Schedule Reliability +/- compared to the industry average in recent month

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Over the past few weeks, members of the Gemini alliance, Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk have aired thoughts that they are considering how to gain financial benefits from the competitive edge they currently have over their competitors in terms of vessel schedule reliability. In a recent investor call, Maersk CEO, Vincent Clerc, stated that: “As for a premium, it’s a conversation we’ve started, but it’s a bit too early to talk about.” [9] While Hapag-Lloyd CEO, Rolf Habben-Jansen, commented along the same lines on the topic when he presented Q3 results to investors and stock analysts in November.

The big question is whether customers are willing to pay a premium for the on-time reliability that the two carriers are currently offering, or if vessels arriving on time is merely just a matter of carriers delivering a standard service to their customers. Alexander Søndergaard, co-director of SMV Danmark, which represents 18.000 Danish SMEs, states that “We find this worrying because it lacks proportionality. Should customers really have to pay more for Maersk to do its job? On behalf of our customers, we find this worrying”. [10] 

Red Sea reopening edges closer amid continued fragile ceasefire

While accusations of continued violation of the ceasefire from both sides remain a concern, steps are now being taken to initiate discussions around the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal. On November 26, Israel handed over the bodies of 15 Palestinians – the day after the Palestinians handed over the remains of an Israeli hostage from the October 7, 2023, attack. The remains of two hostages are still to be returned from the Palestinians, which will conclude Hamas’ obligations in phase 1 of the ceasefire deal.

November 25, mediators met in Cairo to discuss the second phase of the ceasefire. That is expected to include deploying an armed International Stabilization Force, tasked with ensuring the disarmament of Hamas, a key demand of Israel, and developing an international body to govern Gaza and oversee reconstruction. [11] Entering the next phase marks an important step in the hopes for peace in the area; however, accusations of terrorist operations and Israeli military responses to these incidents clearly shows that the situation is fragile.

Since the ceasefire was initiated and the Houthis confirmed that they would refrain from targeting merchant vessels, there have been no new attacks in the Red Sea area, leading to increasing speculation whether shipping lines are planning to return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal within the near future. 

The speculation was fuelled by a statement from the Suez Canal Authority stating that “Maersk-affiliated vessels will return to transiting through the Suez Canal early December as a precursor to the full-capacity return” [12]. However, this was later refuted by Maersk, stating that they are yet to line up a specific date for resuming Red Sea operations and that a return would require test sailings and a “process of at least three months”. [13]

CMA CGM move forward with Suez Canal passage

There are concrete indications that carriers are beginning to explore the feasibility of a potential return to the Red Sea, although no major shipping lines have clearly communicated their plans to the market. Most recently, CMA CGM BENJAMIN FRANKLIN and CMA CGM ZHENG HE successfully transited the Suez Canal, and it seems that a permanent rotation change is now being implemented on CMA CGM’s FAL 1 service illustrated below. 

Also, CMA CGM´s FAL 3 service is scheduled to resume service via the Suez Canal during December, while there are presently no plans to return to Suez Canal passage for FAL 2, FAL 5, FAL 6, FAL 7 and FAL 8 services, operated by Ocean Alliance partner.

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It is, though, worth noting that a systemic and permanent return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal is still not imminent. Market intelligence group Linerlytica does not expect a full-scale return to the canal in the near term and commented: “No full-scale return to the Suez is expected in the next two months despite the statement from the Suez Canal Authority on 25 November that Maersk will send their ships back to the Suez Canal in early December. Neither Maersk nor its Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd are scheduled to return any of their ships to the Suez next month” and continued: “...CMA CGM remains the only main carrier to test the early return to the Suez, with three of its Asia-Europe and Mediterranean services set to resume eastbound voyages from the end of December.”

Peter Sand from Xeneta echoed: “There is ongoing speculation of a largescale return of container ships to the Red Sea, but the situation remains fragile. Carriers will continue to test the water – particularly on backhaul services with less cargo and therefore lower liability – but insurance remains a major stumbling block when ships are still sailing through an area designated as high risk”. [14]

On 11 December, Ole Trumpfheller, Managing Director of North Europe at Maersk, commented: “There will be no back and forth,” referring to the fact that Maersk will only go through the Red Sea once the waters are safe, so that sailing can resume in full. [15]

Despite mixed signals, it is though clear that a return to the Suez Canal looks more realistic and plausible than at any point over the past two years.

What are the short-term impacts of a return to Suez Canal passage?

The immediate and most obvious impact in a full-blown scenario of returning to transit via the Suez Canal is heavy port congestion in North Europe, as well as an upward push of ocean freight rates. As Lars Jensen, Vespucci Maritime, puts it: “For those hoping that a return will lead to a swift reduction, or collapse, in freight rates please note that all experience from the past five years shows that congestion and disruption lead to increased freight rates, not the reverse” [16] He explained, while also pointing out that a return to a Suez routing will indeed temporarily lead to substantial congestion and disruption, especially in Europe, but also with some direct impact on US East Coast and then spill-over on the Atlantic as well as Europe to South America and Africa. 

Lars Jensen, in an opinion article shared on ShippingWatch, provided his perspective on the ideal timing for a return to the Suez Canal for the global container carriers. He highlighted that a return would be particularly well-timed during a certain spring period, specifically right after the Lunar New Year or 2-3 weeks later. 

It was argued that the traditional slump in volumes from Asia in the immediate period after the Lunar New Year would have a less disruptive impact on the networks, and furthermore explained that if carriers can wait just 2-3 weeks longer, then there is a window of opportunity to minimise the disruptive impact even further. This entails the low-season volumes, with much fewer sailings, to be the last ones to go south around Africa. Then the switch back to Suez should happen, meaning it will only be the normal cargo export flow seen in March, which would now arrive in Europe at the same time as the low-season volume coming around Africa. [17]

Weather, strikes and geopolitics keep European ports gridlocked

Port capacity across Europe has been under severe pressure for the past year, driven by a succession of disruptions including the Red Sea situation, adverse weather conditions, strikes, infrastructural constraints and a global trade war. Beyond the operational inconvenience, port congestion has a direct impact on global supply chains as it increases the risk of demurrage and detention charges as well as carriers are forced to consider blank sailings or port emissions – ultimately disrupting production schedules and sales campaigns.

Most recently, a nationwide strike in Belgium across multiple sectors took place from 24-26 November, affecting one of Europe’s largest gateways, the Port of Antwerp, and adding yet more strain to an already heavily congested carrier hub. According to the port authorities, “13 outbound vessels and 28 inbound vessels are waiting without prospects” and “inbound and outbound vessel traffic is experiencing delays due to actions over the past few days, combined with limited visibility and reduced availability of maritime pilots in the afternoon.” [18]

 Across Asia, major ports are also facing operational challenges due to adverse weather conditions. This includes some of China’s busiest ports, as well as some disruption is reported in two of Southeast Asia’s key hubs – Port Klang in Malaysia, and Singapore. In early December, Colombo was hit by Cyclone Ditwah and operated “out of schedule” in the following week; however, cargo operations have since returned to normal.

Overall, North America and Latin America continue to operate relatively smoothly, including all major gateways on both the US East Coast and West Coast. As noted in our previous update, a few ports continue to report delays and dwell times above normal, i.e. Canadian ports of Vancouver, Montreal and Prince Rupert. In Brazil, the Port of Paranaguá is experiencing elevated waiting times, resulting in delays linked to congestion at the port. 

Increase in ocean emissions surcharge from 2026

As of January 1, 2026, the emissions surcharge for all ocean shipments to and from EU/EEA countries will increase significantly compared to 2025. The adjustment reflects the rising compliance costs associated with two key environmental regulations:

1. EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) 

From 2026, the EU ETS will require shipping lines to cover 100% of verified emissions, increasing from 70% in 2025. The system will also expand and include methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). 

Additionally, allowance prices under the EU ETS are expected to continue rising.

2. FuelEU Maritime Regulation (FuelEU Maritime)

The FuelEU Maritime compliance costs are increasing due to current trends in biofuel prices. Higher biofuel prices, combined with lower fossil fuel prices, make compliance with low-emission fuel requirements more expensive.

The above factors are driving the upcoming increase in the emissions surcharge.

We will make sure to keep our customers informed as information and revised surcharge levels become available.

The airfreight pendulum keeps swinging

As we approach year-end, the global airfreight market remains steady; however, with a peak period that has been stronger than expected, carrying some momentum into 2026. 

Following the Thanksgiving and Black Friday period in the US, demand on Transpacific routes has started to ease. Rates to the US fell by around 1.5% week-on-week in week 47, indicating the tail end of a short-lived seasonal spike. In contrast, the broader market remains resilient. In November, global tonnages increased by 5% YoY, with Asia-Pacific (8%), Middle East & South Asia (11%), and Central and South America (6%) leading the charge.

The global spot rates rose by 3% week-on-week in the first week of December, reaching USD 3.01/kg. The growth was mainly led by week-on-week increases from African origins (11%), Europe (6%), and the Asia Pacific (4%). Despite the increase, worldwide spot rates are down 6% compared with last year.

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Asia-Pacific air cargo to the US strengthens as Southeast Asia surges

Southeast Asia continues to be the primary driver of Transpacific air cargo demand. Volumes from the region to the US surged by +42% year-on-year in November. Year-on-year, overall tonnage increases are coming from Taiwan (+40%), Vietnam (+52%), Thailand (+37%), Malaysia (+17%), Singapore (+43%), and Indonesia (+27%).

This performance contrasts with more muted figures from China, where US-bound exports continue to face pressure. In November, airfreight volumes from China bound for the US fell by    5% year-on-year, while Hong Kong-US flows dropped by 14%. This reflects a clear shift among US importers towards alternative sourcing across Asia, driven by rising tariffs on Chinese goods and the removal of de minimis exemptions. Since mid-2025, when the US began easing import tariffs on Chinese goods, air cargo volumes from mainland China to the US had shown tentative signs of recovery. After suffering double-digit year-on-year declines in April and May, volumes stabilised, but the latest figures suggest momentum remains weak, with tonnages now slipping back below 2024 levels. 

At the same time, the Asia–Europe trade lane is gaining share. In November, China-Europe volumes increased by +5%, and Hong Kong-Europe volumes rose by 14% year-on-year. These figures highlight how volumes are shifting as a result of US de minimis changes and widening trade tensions. This pivot in air cargo flows is expected to continue into early 2026.

Supporting this trend, recent data on European import dynamics from Rotate shows that e‑commerce and raw materials are now the two strongest growth engines, with e‑commerce demand up 62% year-on-year and raw materials up 24%, equivalent to a combined +234 thousand tonnes in May–August 2025. This reinforces the growing importance of Asia-origin cargo feeding Europe’s rapidly expanding e‑commerce segment and industrial input needs.

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Heavy congestion levels in Thailand & Cambodia after severe floodings

After heavy rainfall that unleashed a widespread of flooding across Asia in late November, terminals and warehouses are experiencing severe congestion. Inter-warehouse transfers are significantly disrupted due to critical shortages of ULDs and dollies, resulting in impaired equipment rotation and constrained cargo handling capacity across both import and export operations.

In Bangkok, some airlines have suspended cargo bookings from 18-24 December 2025 to clear out backlogs.

Simultaneously, there is a significant increase in inbound cargo and transhipment cargo due to the year-end festive season, putting further strain on the situation.

2026 Outlook: A balanced up‑cycle for air cargo

Although growth is expected to moderate after a prolonged period of expansion, demand in 2026 still appears moderately strong. According to consultancy firm Rotate, global air‑cargo demand is projected to increase by about 3% annually, roughly in line with global GDP growth.
Key support comes from moderately positive demand signals in the US, and as well inventory levels in the US remain low relative to sales across most of 2025, which tends to favour airfreight.

Meanwhile, freighter utilisation is at a record high. Aircrafts are flying around 15 block hours per day, indicating that capacity is being well utilised and demand remains strong.

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TRADELANE OVERVIEW OF OCEAN FREIGHT

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TRADELANE OVERVIEW OF AIRFREIGHT

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