Important Notice: Update on the ongoing Middle East Security Situation

The situation remains very fluid, predominantly on airfreight due to airspace closure(s); however, significant impact on ocean freight flows is evident as well and set to accelerate further in the coming days.

Effects are widespread and go far beyond the Middle East

It is also clear that the impact is far from isolated to shipments with origin/destination to/from the Middle East. The Middle Eastern region overall plays a critical role in the global transportation ecosystem. 

As a simple example, the two largest cargo airlines in the world, Qatar Airways and Emirates, are Middle Eastern, with key hubs located in the Gulf region. And if further examples are needed: One of the only pure-breed cargo carriers, Cargolux, has cancelled essentially all flights to/from the Middle East with only Muscat left as the only operated service in the region.

On the ocean freight side, the impact has been instant as well, with a full closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. This, in isolation, creates a severe bottleneck in the Gulf area, which consequently has also squashed hopes of resuming passage through the Suez Canal just as ocean carriers had slowly but surely started to utilise Suez Canal passage again.

Sharp increase in oil prices drives up freight rates

The escalation in the Middle East conflict has caused a sharp rise in global oil prices. Brent crude, a key global oil benchmark, has surged to $80–$85 per barrel as of 4 March 2026, up from $75 per barrel on 2 March 2026 before the conflict escalated. Prior to the attacks, Brent crude was priced around $70–$75 per barrel, rising $10–$15 per barrel in just a couple of days. This sharp rise is driven by concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes.

Source: ABC News

Experts predict that prices may reach $100 per barrel or higher, with some forecasts suggesting Brent crude could surpass $120 per barrel in extreme scenarios. 

Prolonged airfreight disruption 

Selected airlines, including Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo, and Etihad Cargo, have resumed flights on a limited scale, with Emirates on 2 March communicating, “Emirates has begun operating a limited number of flights commencing on the evening of 2 March. As part of this phased resumption, we are prioritising clearing the cargo that is on hand. All other flights remain suspended until further notice. In line with this, we are maintaining temporary restrictions on the booking and acceptance of all new shipments until we have further clarity on the operational schedule”.

Passenger flights by in large remain suspended, and the majority of flights have so far serviced the evacuation of stranded passengers in the region. As highlighted on earlier occasions, then an important fact is, that majority of global air cargo is carried on commercial passenger flights as belly-hold cargo.

Experts estimate the situation could remain chaotic for several weeks as airlines assess alternate routes. Dr Ian Douglas, an expert in aviation and airline management, said the situation will be “messy for the next month for passenger flights at best, as airlines work to rebook passengers people, coordinate with partners and figure out other routes to avoid problematic airspace as a significant share of global cargo normally moves in passenger aircraft belly holds, meaning reduced passenger operations again is adding pressure to capacity and longer transit times” [1].

Airspace remains closed or highly restricted in most of the Gulf countries, including the UAE, Qatar, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, significantly affecting global airfreight.

Majority of airlines are extending airspace suspensions, and furthermore, many airlines have cancelled or suspended flights two to three weeks out, hinting that the disruption will continue beyond this week, recognising the timeline laid out by the US Administration.

“We shouldn’t expect a wide return to normal in the Gulf region when there are still air attacks taking place. Once there’s more clarity, some of the region’s airlines will move quickly back to normal while the big connecting carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways may take a few days to get all aircraft and crews back into sync and be fully operational,” ASM Aviation Consulting Director Edmond Rose said. “They may also be cautious about bringing full capacity back quickly while they assess any changes in market demand resulting from the war.” [2]

Gulf airline carriers play a critical role in global airfreight 

The disruption is accelerated by the critical role Gulf carriers play within global airfreight. Qatar Airways, Emirates Skycargo and Etihad together account for roughly 13 % of global air cargo capacity, and their hubs function as key East-West transfer points.

Freightos estimates that, under normal circumstances, around a quarter of China-Europe air cargo capacity transits the Middle East, which in turn means the impact extends far beyond the Gulf region itself.

Source: Loadstar

We are seeing a slow, but gradual resumption of cargo flights to and from the Middle East and we expect this development to continue in the days to come.

Total capacity on Asia-Europe impacted by up to 40 %

From a total capacity perspective on the blockbuster route from Asia to Europe estimates vary, however, consensus remains around the 35-40 % mark in terms of reduced capacity. Using representative pre-lunar new year levels as a baseline, consultancy Aevean, estimates that capacity across the Asia Pacific–Middle East and South Asia – Europe corridors is down by 39 % in available cargo tonne kilometres.

This number speaks to a fundamental, structural change in the global airfreight market in the short term.

Source: Loadstar

Accordingly, rate levels have surged instantly, and we expect this development to persist in the coming weeks as backlogs have built quickly. We are doing our utmost to keep the additional cost impact to a minimum, recognising the severity of the situation.

What are the alternative solutions at hand?

On the airfreight side, we have already seen a surge in requests for alternatives, namely Sea-Air and part & full charter options. Below you will find an overview of alternative routings across modes, and should you wish to explore these further, please reach out to your dedicated SGL contact person.

We are exploring all options to provide entrepreneurial alternatives to expedite shipments, and we are working on further solutions as we speak.

Ocean Freight disruption heating up

In terms of ocean freight, the disruption game is heating up, with the first signs of equipment imbalance as a challenge, and, not least, a reduction in available capacity due to idling vessels in the Gulf region.

According to Alphaliner, nearly 140 container vessels are trapped inside the Middle East Gulf, with MSC and CMA CGM being the most affected carriers, with 15 (109.000 TEU) and 14 (70.000 TEU) vessels, respectively, seeking shelter.

Source: Alphaliner Newsletter 2026-09

Alphaliner has recorded 124 container liner services calling to at least one port in the Arab Gulf as part of their proforma rotations. This amounts to 3.60 MTEU of combined deployed capacity across 520 container vessels. Concretely, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has a direct impact on 10.7% of the global container shipping fleet based on available TEU capacity.

Significant rate increases ahead

Short-term rate levels are expected to spike, and on long-term rates, carriers have, for now, suspended contract negotiations. Hefty war risk surcharges to the tune of USD 2000-3000 per container have been imposed on shipments enroute to and from the Middle East. For new shipments, majority of carriers have suspended booking acceptance, except for cargo commodities such as food supplies and medicine.

In light off the critical situation, carriers have declared force majeure and commenced offloading containers at the nearest feasible port. MSC have declared a so-called “end of voyage” which comes along with a price tag of additional USD 800/container.

Red Sea passage grinds to a halt

While Houthi rebels have yet to officially declare their intentions following the attacks on Iran by Israel and the US, container carriers have commenced rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, for now putting a stop to a return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. The attacks on Iran could not have come at a worse time for global shipping, considering that it coincides with container carriers returning to Red Sea and Suez Canal passage.

Although there has been no official word of a resumption of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, it has been reported that commanders had ordered the strait to be closed to shipping as Iran took similar action in the Strait of Hormuz.

“The repercussions of the joint military operation by the US and Israel against Iran and subsequent retaliatory action will see the further weaponization of trade and shatter hopes of a largescale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026,” commented Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta. [3] 

Sand’s comments were swiftly followed by the Gemini Cooperation, which confirmed the reversal of its recent decision to re-route its ME11/IMX service from India to the Mediterranean via Suez. Maersk had also planned to re-route its MECL service, operating from India, the Middle East and the US East Coast, via Suez, but has also cancelled these plans.

As is the case with airfreight, it is clear that impact is spreading far beyond the Middle East. The COVID-19 period painfully showed just how interconnected and fragile the shipping ecosystem is, and this is still the case. One week of direct impact can easily translate into more than a month of structural disruption, including increased port congestion, equipment imbalance due to empty repositioning being out of sync, and, not least, reduced capacity.

Professor Ben Fahimnia, who specialises in supply chains and transport logistics at the University of Sydney states: “Re-routing ships adds time, cost, and obviously there is also the risk,” he says and continues, “so this prolonged disruption is something that would place sustained pressure on the energy market and global freight rates." And also states: “If 20 per cent of globally traded supply is disrupted, then the price rises everywhere."  [5]

Our recommendation for Gulf region ocean shipments

UAE import shipments:

Cargo bound for the UAE can be routed via Khorfakkan Port. This will ease the customs process, as the final destination remains within the UAE, making clearance more straightforward and efficient.

UAE export shipments:

For shipments from the UAE to the rest of the world, bookings can currently be moved through alternative ports, such as Sohar, Jeddah, and Khor Fakkan, but this is subject to carrier acceptance.

Saudi Arabia import shipments:

For shipments destined to Saudi Arabia, we recommend utilising Jeddah, King Abdullah Seaport, and Yanbu as the port of entry. This will simplify the customs process and facilitate smoother inland delivery within Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia Exports:

All exports are, for now, transhipped normally from the Jeddah, King Abdullah, and Yanbu ports, though subject to an ECS surcharge. 
Other GCC Countries Imports (Kuwait / Bahrain / Qatar / Oman):

For the remaining Gulf destinations, alternative ports are Sohar, Jeddah and Khorfakkan; however, the situation is currently very fluid, and all bookings are for now subject to final confirmation.

Navigating uncertainty is our top priority

We wish to underline that we are working around the clock to provide full transparency on delayed shipments and, accordingly, identify alternative routing options.

The situation is extremely volatile and is changing by the hour. We encourage constant dialogue, especially on time-critical shipments where delays are not an option. While the impact is structural by nature, there are options that can be utilised.

We recognise the impact of the additional cost coverage required, and the aim is to keep the additional cost impact to a minimum; however, the situation is unprecedented, and the outlook for the short-term is unfortunately significant cost increases. We strive for an open and constructive dialogue on these matters and in advance thank you for your understanding.

Last, but not least, the safety of our colleagues on the ground in the Middle East is our top priority. At present, we can maintain normal customer service levels through contingency planning, and we expect this to continue as the situation progresses.