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Global Chief Commercial Officer
Market update
26 Feb, 2026
Further insight into the process revealed that an intense bidding war took place, with Hapag-Lloyd beating its alliance partner, Maersk, in a process that insiders describe as one with many ups and downs over the 6-month process, including complex deal considerations regarding Israeli national interests under the new ownership.
The news comes at a time when the global ocean freight market is oversaturated, and structural overcapacity is becoming more evident. One clear indicator of this was seen when Maersk published its Q4 2025 results, reporting an operating loss of USD 153m within its Ocean division, marking the first time the carrier had reported an operating loss since 2016. It is widely considered as realistic, that a broad range of ocean carriers are facing full-year negative results in 2026, on account of sluggish trade growth and arrival of new ordered vessels.
It is worth noting that all carriers still bolster very healthy balance sheets on account of cash compiled during the festive COVID-19 earnings years. Accordingly, it is also expected that a prolonged market share war is a realistic scenario.
2026 is shaping up to be the economic moment of truth
Seen through a positive lens, the IMF’s latest outlook suggests the global economy is not falling off a cliff with growth projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, broadly in line with 2025 and slightly stronger than expected back in October. On paper, that signals resilience rather than a slowdown.
However, beneath the surface, several headwinds remain. While growth figures may appear moderately stable, the underlying uncertainty is driven by continued geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies, and latest the fear of an AI bubble. The status is that dark clouds continue to dominate the economic weather forecast.
Inflation is easing, with global inflation level expected to fall from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. That gradual cooling should support increased purchasing power; however, consumer confidence nonetheless remains subdued across the global economy. Zooming in on the US, the modest uptick is visible, but it is also clear that the mood overall remains gloomy compared to recent years.
In short, the 2026 macro engine is running, but it is not accelerating. The real question for 2026 is not growth itself, but whether geopolitics allows economic growth to translate into stronger trade volumes. [1]
The US Supreme Court decision trigger further tariff and trade chaos
After months of waiting, the US Supreme Court on Friday 20 February 2026 ruled against the White House's aggressive use of emergency powers to levy tariffs, saying President Donald Trump had no legal and legislative authority to do so.
US President Trump publicly criticised the Supreme Court ruling and warned that any countries that “play games” with the decision or existing trade deals would face much higher tariffs, signalling he will pursue alternative tariff tools and licensing mechanisms to maintain trade pressure. The message from Washington is clear: the policy objective has not changed, even if the legal basis has. [2]
President Trump also made it clear that countries that attempt to sidestep the ruling, including China, the EU, and potentially Canada, will face the risk of much higher tariffs. He reiterated that the policy objective of pressuring strategic trade partners will remain intact despite the ruling’s legal challenges.
At the same time, the US administration introduced a replacement 10% global import duty via a proclamation dated 20 February 2026, with implementation effective 24 February 2026. The surcharge is temporary and set to run for 150 days, meaning it expires in summer 2026, after which, congressional approval is needed, however, this is considered unlikely. This leaves a mid-year policy cliff hanger, adding another layer of planning uncertainty for importers and exporters across the globe.
The landmark ruling, although widely expected, yet again upends the global trade landscape, throwing into question negotiations over key trade deals between the US and the European Union, as well as other countries, not least China.
What is clear is that this yet again lays the foundation for economic uncertainty, which will dampen growth in the coming period.
US President Trump has announced a three-day visit to China from 31 March to 2 April, in what will be the first official visit to Beijing since 2017, when Trump last visited China. While US and China trade has calmed since a temporary truce was called in October 2025, it is worth noting that it was in fact only a truce, and no final agreement was reached.
Geopolitical alarm bells ring higher than ever before
The geopolitical conflict barometer continues to increase at a steady pace, whether through armed conflict or diplomatic tensions, as in the case of US rhetoric on the annexation of Greenland.
What is worth noting is that a number of these conflicts have the potential to cause serious disruption for global trade. A present example is the escalating tension between Iran and the US, with speculation mounting that the US could launch a military strike against Iran. Should this scenario unfold, it will, with almost full certainty, lead to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, with Iran to the north and the United Arab Emirates and Oman to the south. It is the gulf’s only direct outlet to open seas, making it a crucial artery for global trade. An average of around 13 million barrels of crude oil passed through the strait each day last year – roughly 31 per cent of global seaborne crude flows – according to data from market intelligence firm Kpler. [3]
As the first sign of what could come, Iran partially and temporarily closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz during a military drill on 17 February, thrusting the vital shipping route under the global spotlight once again.
These are just a few “high(low)lights”, since our last advisory. Read on as we deep-dive into more geopolitical turmoil affecting global trade and logistics, and not least the latest development within the global air and ocean freight market.
Please note that all information provided is given to the best of our knowledge and is subject to change.
US Tariff chaos erupts with full force
Since the beginning of 2025, US tariff policy has been the blockbuster topic in our advisories for the simple reason that it has had a widespread impact on global trade, not least on the Transpacific trade lane between China and the US.
On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court struck down key elements of the US administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as a legal basis for certain tariffs.
Shortly after, on 23 February 2026, Reuters reported that US Customs would stop collecting the tariffs deemed unlawful, with the change taking effect on 24 February 2026.
It adds to business uncertainty in different ways. Trump responded angrily and immediately instituted a 10% global tariff on all imported goods, and the day after, stated it would increase to 15%. The following official announcement from the White House confirmed that the tariff was ultimately set at 10%4. However, the intention to increase to 15% still stands as per the latest signals from the US administration. [5]
The current 10% tariff is only legal for 150 days unless Congress passes a law to continue such levies, which is not seen as likely. The US administration also floated other ideas to tax goods entering the US, by use of other legislative measures that have a stronger legal standing. On top of that, there is now confusion and uncertainty about whether levied tariffs will be refunded to US importers – and, if so, how that refund would ever reach the end consumer who has ultimately picked up the bill.
This has not translated into clarity or immediate relief. The Supreme Court ruling does not automatically trigger refunds. Any reimbursement would depend on legal appeals, administrative procedures and potential replacement measures. For businesses, this creates accounting and compliance uncertainty rather than immediate financial benefit.
The EU reacted on 23 February 2026, stating it would not accept an increase in US tariffs beyond the agreed terms, raising the risk of renewed transatlantic tension if new measures expand.
Canada recalibrates: New trade deal with China
Already before the US Supreme Court ruling, the global tectonic trade plates were shifting, with a key example being the fresh trade deal between Canada and China. The deal will see Canada ease tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles that it imposed in tandem with the US in 2024. In exchange, China will lower retaliatory tariffs on key Canadian agricultural products.
The move represents a significant shift in Canada's policy toward China, one that is shaped by ongoing uncertainty with the US, its largest trade partner. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney leaved no ambiguity behind when commenting on the new world trade order, by stating; “we take the world as it is, not as we wish it to be” and later doubled down on his comments by saying; “the world has changed in recent years, and the progress made with China sets Canada up "well for the new world order”. He later wrote, in a social media post, that Canada was "recalibrating" its relationship with China, strategically, pragmatically, and decisively”. [6]
Picture: Automotive Logistics
What is in store for the remainder of 2026 remains to be seen, but it is becoming clear that we have transitioned from theoretical shifts in trade policies to a trade landscape in which trade deals are forged between what used to be opposing countries.
Hapag-Lloyd’s ZIM move under the microscope
In a statement released on 16 February 2026, the Hapag-Lloyd Management Board confirms that the carrier has signed an agreement to acquire ZIM. Rumours of a potential sale were discussed in our latest advisory back in December.
At the time, analysts assessed that a sale to Hapag-Lloyd would be an unlikely scenario due to the ownership structure of Hapag-Lloyd being partly based in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, combined with the Israeli government’s partial ownership of ZIM Lines, as the state holds a so-called “golden share” in ZIM, which is intended to ensure that the state can protect its vital interests. [7]
To address this concern, Hapag-Lloyd has entered into an agreement with FIMI Opportunity Funds, a leading Israeli financial investor ("FIMI"), under which a company controlled by FIMI ("New Company") will assume the obligations arising from the Special State Rights. For this purpose, twelve ships and the assets required for the operation of three trade routes are to be transferred from Hapag-Lloyd or ZIM to the New Company. [8]
The purchase price agreed between the parties amounts to USD 4.2 billion, making it one of the most expensive acquisitions in recent years. In comparison, Maersk’s acquisition of Hamburg Süd in 2017 was confirmed at USD 4 billion, while the purchase price of Cosco's acquisition of OOCL in 2018 was USD 6.3 billion.
ZIM acquisition secures Hapag-Lloyd’s top 5 spot
The acquisition of ZIM Lines will add around 700,000 TEU to Hapag-Lloyd’s global fleet capacity, which will help them surpass the 3 million TEU milestone and consolidate their position as the world’s 5th largest container shipping line. This will move them closer to Cosco at number 4 (3.6 million TEU) and obviously also increase the margin to number 6, ONE, who holds a global capacity of 2.1 million TEU.
Red Sea & Suez: Partial return underway, but mixed signals persist
The Red Sea shipping situation continues to evolve in early 2026. After more than two years of near full avoidance due to Houthi attacks and regional instability, carriers are testing a partial return to the critical Red Sea and Suez Canal trade corridors.
Several major developments have emerged:
Despite these moves, industry messaging remains mixed. Carriers are balancing shorter transit times against risk classification and the need for naval protection, and there is, as of now, no firm timeline for a full implementation of Red Sea routing across all services. Our assessment is that a full normalisation will be gradual rather than abrupt, with safety, insurance and political considerations continuing to impact routing decisions.
In short, the Red Sea corridor is reopening in a controlled, stepwise manner, though in the short term, we do not anticipate a full-blown return to pre-2023 routing.
While a full return to Suez Canal passage is welcomed and positive news, it is important to note that before we reach the end of the Suez Canal reliability rainbow, some form of congestion chaos, especially at the major North Europe ports, is to be expected, until schedules and rotations have been fully synchronised.
Ocean freight rates to drop as carriers prepare for blank sailings
Following a period of rate increases in November, December and the first couple of weeks in 2026, the market has dropped over the past 4-5 weeks. The pre-Lunar New Year peak was weaker than expected, which put further pressure on rate levels ahead of the holiday season in China. The most recent SCFI figures from week 7 (same levels for week 8, i.e. Lunar New Year week) reported a 15% drop in rates to North Europe base ports equal to $468/40’, while rates on the Mediterranean trade were 21% down, equal to $1,158/40’.
The same pattern emerged on Transpacific, however, dropping at a slightly lower pace with rates to the US East Coast down by 13% and West Coast rates down by 14% over the 4-week period.
We anticipate that carriers will begin blanking sailings more aggressively to tighten capacity and bring pressure on spot rates post Lunar New Year. Carriers are trying to push rates up, as the downward trajectory over the past weeks has already pushed rates to their lowest levels since 2023.
Xeneta’s chief analyst, Peter Sand, stated in a Loadstar article that “carriers will respond with aggressive capacity management, including blanking sailings, which could cause supply chain disruption and delays for shippers”. [9]
Schedule reliability remains stable, however, with notable trade lane exceptions
The schedule reliability in global container shipping has somewhat stabilised over the past 8 months, with the global industry average across trade lanes has plateaued in the range of 62-67%. In the latest Global Liner Performance report, released in late January, global schedule reliability dropped by 1.2% to 62.8%, the second-lowest level since May.
Year-on-Year, the overall development in 2025 is overall positive, moving the needle in the right direction with a 9.1% improvement according to the report. However, looking at the numbers in a more long-term perspective, it is evident that the carriers still have a way to go to get back to performance levels achieved prior to COVID-19. Looking at the years leading up to COVID-19 (2018-2019), global schedule reliability averaged at the 75% mark.
Winter volatility in Europe and Lunar New Year pressure in Asian ports
Across the ocean networks, reliability is also being shaped by two familiar factors: Weather disruptions and pre-Lunar New Year volume front-loading out of Asia.
The majority of European ports continue to feel the impact of severe winter weather conditions, with Bay of Biscay disruption and sporadic terminal slowdowns still rippling across the Western Mediterranean and Northern Europe. Carriers have flagged ongoing pressure and the need for fast import pick-up to protect yard density, while North Europe hubs, including Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven, have faced reduced productivity and inland constraints due to extreme weather conditions.
In the US, record-breaking snowfall earlier this week brought parts of the US east coast, including New York, to a standstill. Vessel operations were suspended at Port Newark-Elizabeth, and on Wednesday, terminals remained closed for operations. The Port Authority of New York-New Jersey posted on X that Port Newark Container Terminal, Maher, Ports America, Port Liberty, CES and Red Hook Barge Terminal also remained closed after the storm.
In Latin America, the overall picture is stable with most ports operating at normal pace, however, at Santos, Paranaguá and Itapoá terminals the situation is tighter. The situation in Panama is also one to watch, with ongoing uncertainty around Balboa and Cristóbal that could create transhipment challenges.
In Asia, multiple China gateways are operating with high yard occupancy and multi-day vessel delays, including Nansha, Ningbo, Shanghai, and Shekou, which increases the risk of gate-in controls, rolled cargo, and tighter cut-offs. Singapore remains busy but comparatively fluid, with average waiting time roughly around one to two days and yard utilisation considered manageable. Meanwhile, parts of Southeast Asia are entering the holiday impact window, with Vietnam flagged for potential yard congestion during the Lunar New Year period and congestion risks at selected terminals. The practical impact for shippers is straightforward: confirmed space is not the same as loaded cargo in the pre-holiday window, and execution risk rises sharply as you get closer to factory and trucking slowdowns
Wings of change as airfreight faces a bumpy year ahead
As 2026 unfolds, the airfreight sector has had a strong start, fuelled by an early Lunar New Year boost and rising demand for time-sensitive shipments. However, beneath this optimistic surface, the market faces a mix of challenges. From continued e-commerce struggles to geopolitical uncertainties. Here is a closer look at how the airfreight landscape is shaping up and what to expect in the months ahead.
Lunar New Year surge delivers early boost
January kicked off 2026 with a 7% year-on-year increase in global air cargo volumes, largely fuelled by the early Lunar New Year. This period is traditionally a guarantee for a rise in demand for perishables, electronics, and e-commerce products, which helped drive growth. With volumes surpassing a 5% increase in air cargo capacity, the dynamic load factor rose by 1 percentage point to 57%.
While this early uptick is promising, it is important to note that much of the surge is due to the holiday's timing, and as we move beyond the festivities, the demand may ease somewhat.
China’s e-commerce decline threatens to rattle global air cargo
The strong start of the year does not tell the whole story. A concerning trend is emerging in China’s e-commerce sector. In December 2025, Chinese e-commerce exports fell 9% year-on-year, marking the first decline since 2022.
US-bound shipments took the worst hit as expected, due to the end of the “de minimis” exception, with exports plummeting by more than 50% for the third consecutive month and falling 28% overall in 2025 compared to 2024 e-commerce export levels. China's e-commerce platforms have increasingly shifted focus to Europe to offset rising US costs, fuelling growth in this corridor. This momentum is now also fading. In December, China-to-Europe e-commerce growth slowed to just 8%, compared to 54% in the first 11 months of 2025. Excluding Russia, sales to the rest of Europe fell 23% year on year.
This slowdown is particularly worrying for the airfreight industry, as cross-border e-commerce business represents 20-25% of global air cargo volumes. The US de minimis ban on low-value shipments from China remains a primary factor behind the drop. But also, EU regulations are affecting China's e-commerce volumes. Starting 1 July 2026, the EU will apply a €3 customs duty on small consignments valued under €150, which is already causing disruptions. In response, Chinese platforms like Shein and Temu are shifting to local warehousing in Europe to avoid the higher costs of direct shipping. These changes are expected to reshape China-EU airfreight, reducing direct parcel flights and pushing towards more consolidated shipments from EU hubs. It is a situation worth watching as it could have wider implications for global airfreight volumes in the coming months.
Global spot rates stabilise despite volatility in key trade lanes
While e-commerce struggles create uncertainty, January saw airfreight spot rates stabilise with a modest 1% year-on-year decline, averaging $2.56 per kg. This slight improvement from last year’s sharper declines was partially driven by the seasonal boost ahead of the Lunar New Year. However, a closer look at key trade lanes reveals a more complex picture.
As seen in the table below, the sharpest declines were seen on the Southeast Asia to North America and Europe trade lanes, where spot rates dropped by more than 10% year-on-year, largely due to an oversupply of capacity and weaker-than-expected demand after the holiday season. Month-on-month, these corridors saw further rate declines of 10% to 16%, reflecting seasonal weakness in demand.
Northeast Asia to Europe saw a 6% year-on-year decline, suggesting that capacity growth is outpacing demand, likely due to softer cross-border e-commerce. Meanwhile, the Northeast Asia to North America corridor saw a smaller 3% decline, attributed to the strategic removal of freighter capacity.
These mixed results underline the ongoing volatility in the market, with some trade lanes performing better than others. Overall, the expectation is that 2026 rate levels will go through a softening period during 2026; however, any decline in rates is expected to be modest vs 2025.
Airfreight capacity impacted by seasonal events
The airfreight market continues to adjust capacity in response to seasonal factors and regional shifts. After the Valentine’s Day flower peak, where freighters made hundreds of flights to transport thousands of tonnes of flowers from Colombia and Ecuador to North American hubs, capacity out of Central and South America began to normalise. With the Valentine's Day rush over, Central and South America volumes dropped by 24% week-on-week in week 7.
Global volumes fell by 7% in week 7 as Valentine’s Day flower shipments cleared, and trade activity slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year. The week-on-week decline in global flower exports accounted for a third of the overall worldwide drop. Africa also recorded a 5% week-on-week fall in outbound volumes, linked to the end of the pre-Valentine’s Day flower export surge from Kenya and Ethiopia.
In Greater China, final Lunar New Year preparations led to a slowdown in production and outbound shipments, resulting in lower tonnage. Pre-holiday factory ramp-downs softened export activity, pushing Asia Pacific tonnage down 5% week-on-week in week 7. Demand lanes diverged: Asia Pacific to the US edged up 1% (supported by Southeast Asia), while Asia Pacific to Europe slipped 2%. Within Greater China, volumes eased from China (-1% to the U.S., -2% to Europe) and Hong Kong (-6% to the US, -5% to Europe), while Malaysia and Vietnam continued to post gains. As a result, carriers have adjusted their services accordingly, with the holiday shutdown likely to keep capacity and pricing under pressure in the near term.
North America saw a strong recovery, with capacity up 6% versus the prior two-week period, linked to post-winter storm recovery, while origin tonnage was flat week-on-week in week 7. In other words, capacity recovered faster than demand. The Middle East and South Asia saw a 3% week-on-week drop in tonnage ahead of the Lunar New Year and the Ramadan period. Flows to Europe increased 5% week-on-week, led by Dubai and Sri Lanka, while volumes to the US fell 8% week-on-week, with sharper drops from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
From April, the shift to summer flight schedules will gradually increase global airfreight capacity as passenger airlines add more flights and restore seasonal long-haul routes. The additional passenger flights bring more belly capacity into the market, particularly on major intercontinental corridors such as Europe–Asia, Transatlantic and Middle East–Europe.
Geopolitical waves in the Red Sea could boost air cargo demand
Beyond market trends, geopolitical factors are also influencing airfreight demand. The situation in the Red Sea and around the Suez Canal remains a major wildcard for the airfreight industry.
Although there has been some positive movement with carriers like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd tentatively resuming Suez Canal transits, the security situation in the region remains volatile. Any escalation in tensions or disruptions could force ocean shippers to turn to airfreight as an alternative. While the impact may be short-term, it could provide a lift to airfreight demand, especially if disruptions lead to further ocean route diversions.
TRADELANE OVERVIEW OF OCEAN FREIGHT
TRADELANE OVERVIEW OF AIRFREIGHT
Global Chief Commercial Officer